For years to come, historians will study the personalities and events that influenced Donald Trump’s decision to launch a massive airstrike against three Iranian nuclear facilities on the morning of June 22. It was one of the most intense geopolitical episodes in recent years, and the strike was every bit as spectacular as Trump claimed it was in his press conference late on June 21.
Paradoxically, this overwhelming display of violence appears to have brought peace—or at least a ceasefire. Since 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has acted with impunity against anyone who resisted the vision of a worldwide Shia revolution; but for the first time in forty years, Iran has been stopped in its tracks. Its proxies are maimed or dead, its missiles and nuclear facilities are in ruins, and most of its military leadership is dead. It’s an unprecedented and humiliating defeat, and a remarkable turn of events for the world.
Unfortunately, the war between the Islamic Republic and Israel won’t end here—its roots are too deep. But quiet has been restored and men and women have stopped dying for now, and that’s something to celebrate. Hopefully, this ceasefire will pave the way for a Gaza ceasefire that will bring the hostages back and end the larger war.
But before we lurch into another dizzying news cycle, let’s take a moment to savor this victory and learn its lessons. The way I see it, there are at least six.
1. Superior military power is the only way to make peace with a rogue regime.
For decades Iran has been battling Israel and the US (“little” and “big” Satan, respectively), sometimes openly but always covertly. The heart of its strategy is a network of Arab militias that acts as a “ring of fire” which hems the Jews in against the Mediterranean Sea until they can be forced out of the region or killed. The strategy also features lethal activity against Israel’s US allies in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Gulf and terrorism around the world. Yet despite these provocations, Republican and Democratic presidents have shown remarkable restraint with Iran over the years and urged Israel to do the same. Our preference has always been diplomacy. We occasionally strike back, but only in limited fashion.
This was a mistake. Diplomacy is worthwhile, but diplomacy needs deadlines. Revisionist regimes founded on the rejection of enemies won’t make peace with those enemies without undermining their own raison d’etre, and have every incentive to drag out negotiations with no intention of completing them. Bush, Obama, Biden, and Trump all fell for Iran’s tactics, earnestly pursuing diplomacy while absorbing Iran’s relentless attacks. They had greater strength, but declined to use it.
Trump broke ranks with his predecessors when he realized (whether on his own or forced by events, history will tell us) that Iran would never give up its nuclear program peacefully. And so, impressed by Israel’s success in the early hours of Operation Rising Lion, Trump decided that two decades of diplomacy was enough. It was time to strike.
2. “Superior military power” doesn’t mean regime change.
Operation Midnight Hammer is the most controversial moment in Trump’s second term, having laid bare the rift between “restrainers” like Tucker Carlson and traditional conservatives like Ted Cruz on the question of military intervention. A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 45 percent of Americans disapprove of the operation and only 36 percent support it. No one wants regime change, and at this point the regime seems likely to survive.
I should be clear: millions of Iranians, Israelis, Arabs, and Americans want the Iranian regime to fall. People have imagined a free Iran ever since it was taken over by the mullahs in 1979. On Monday, Reza Pahlavi, a Washington DC-based expat and son of the deposed shah, threw his hat in the ring as the ayatollah’s replacement, claiming a “100-day plan” that will move Iran from dictatorship to secular democracy. But no one in DC or Jerusalem is talking seriously about replacing the Islamic Republic by force. Trump and Netanyahu may have used regime change language as a psyop against the ayatollah, but neither man has a “government in a box” ready for Tehran nor the political support to impose one.
Regime changes succeed when led organically from below or imposed through long-term military occupation from above. Even then, what follows is unpredictable and violent. Aftershocks may reverberate for years to come.
The Crown Prince and the Iranian people reserve the right to take back their country, but America and Israel won’t do it for them. The regime will fall when it falls. If the people rise up, we should help them, but no one should push it. In the meantime, our goals have been accomplished and a better balance of power is emerging, and that’s plenty for now.
3. Massive yet targeted use of force is usually enough to break an enemy.
There’s a great scene in the movie Tombstone (1993) when Wyatt Earp (Kurt Russell) stands up to a loudmouthed bully named Johnny Tyler (Billy Bob Thornton) who has intimidated a hotelier and his patrons and hijacked the hotel’s gambling business. After sizing the pudgy thug up and down, Earp walks over to Tyler and casually mocks him before slapping him across the face in front of everyone. “Go ahead, skin it,” Earp growls menacingly at Tyler, daring him to reach for his pistol. “Skin that smoke wagon and see what happens.” The hapless thug, bleeding and scared, lowers his head in shame. Earp grabs him by the ear and tosses him out.
It’s a good way to visualize the psychological effect the American-Israeli operation had in Tehran. Until Saturday, Trump’s 2020 airstrike on Qassem Soleimani was the premier example of the “Tombstone slap”; now Midnight Hammer has taken the prize. The ayatollahs shot their mouth off on the world stage for decades, oppressing their people while vowing to destroy their enemies. Western pundits and policymakers have for the most part warned against confronting Iran for fear of an Armageddon-like war that would engulf the world. But 12 days of combined Israeli-American military action have revealed the ayatollah as just another Johnny Tyler, reminding us all that the best way to stop a bully is to out-bully him. The trick is to see through the bully’s bravado and slap him—hard. Because a hard slap today is better than a shootout tomorrow.
4. Military strikes don’t bring peace, but they restrain violent men for a while.
One of the keys to designing and “dosing” any military intervention is to limit its goals to what is achievable. It should be obvious by now that bringing peace to the Near East is not among such goals. Someday Ishmael will make peace with Jacob, but it will happen when it happens and we must modulate our hopes accordingly. “Peace” in the full meaning of the word isn’t necessary here or even possible. The achievable goal is a better equilibrium that favor the US and our allies.
The durability of Trump’s ceasefire will become clear soon enough. It may hold for decades like the 1949 armistice between Israel and the Arab states, or it will collapse when Iran violates it, whether immediately or eventually, openly or through its proxies. Iran could restart its nuclear program; its proxies could trigger new conflicts as they search for alternative sources of support; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could move to fill the vacuum. Political blowback in the US could create some surprises in the midterm elections and new opportunities for the Democrats. All of this can happen and more.
Every solution contains the seeds of new problems, it’s true. Operation Midnight Hammer is no exception. But we can cross such bridges when we come to them, and be happy that they’re further away than ever.
5. Forge deep alliances—and stand by them.
For Americans, Midnight Hammer was an impressive but limited airstrike that started and ended in a few days. For Israelis, it was the final act of a longer operation which began on June 13, which was itself the final act of a longer war joined on October 7, 2023. It was an exhausting 627 days, but the outcome has proved better than anyone expected. Israel’s enemies, and ours, have been pushed back on every side in a drama no less impressive than the Six Day War, just played out in slow motion.
Make no mistake: We may have destroyed Fordow, but Israelis are the heroes of this story. It was Israeli courage and creativity that made the operation so successful at such minimal cost. It was Israeli generals and spies who spent decades preparing for this battle, and Israeli soldiers who did most of the fighting.
To be sure, immense death and damage have been unleashed around the region since 10/7. An incalculable physical and psychological toll has been wrought on Israel, and some 50 hostages still languish in Gaza. But these adverse effects, even when coupled with future aftershocks, can’t detract from a victory which is nothing short of momentous—and not just for Israel, but for us. It’s a fresh example of why values-based alliances are vital even in—perhaps especially in—seasons of American restraint.
6. It is good to be thankful.
Trump isn’t a religious man, but seems to respect religious people and evince a minimal fear of God on occasion. One such occasion was Saturday night. I found it entirely proper and indeed moving when he, toward the end of his press conference, thanked US and Israeli soldiers before turning his attention heavenward. “I want to just thank everybody, and in particular God—,” Trump said, his voice faltering, “I want to just say we love you God…” It was interesting to hear a president say such words in the first person; and, although I’m no body language expert, I’m pretty sure I saw real relief on his face. I can only imagine the pressure of the last two weeks, and take his confession of thanks as genuine.
Of course, thanking God is no guarantee that US foreign policy is in sync with God’s will. But leaders of both parties would be wise to issue such declarations on a regular basis, reminding their people and themselves that man makes plans but God directs his steps. Gratitude, like charity, covers a multitude of sins, and helps humble and steer a nation that tends to lose the plot.
“Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace,” Trump told the world on Saturday. Now some version of that peace appears to be taking hold. The next few months will determine how long it lasts, but for now the “destruction of Israel” clock in Tehran has been destroyed along with the confidence of the monsters who built it—and for that, we can all be grateful.
