In April this year, Pascal Sleiman, a coordinator for the Lebanese Forces (LF) party—Lebanon’s largest Christian party—was abducted near Byblos, north of Beirut, and later found dead in Syria. Hezbollah promptly launched a disinformation campaign, attempting to shift blame for the killing onto criminal elements. Less than a year prior, Elias Hasrouni, a member of the LF central council and former party coordinator, was also killed. Hasrouni was murdered in Ain Ebel, one of four Christian villages in the Bint Jbeil province, an area surrounded by Shiite Muslim villages where Hezbollah holds significant influence.
Approximately 30% of Lebanon’s population is Christian, with Maronite Christians forming the largest group. The Maronites belong to the Catholic Church and are in full communion with the Pope. The Maronite Church is one of the 23 Eastern Catholic Churches, each distinguished by unique liturgical rites, traditions, and canon law, yet all recognize the Pope’s authority as the head of the Roman Catholic Church.
While tensions between Christians and Muslims in Lebanon have fluctuated over the years, they have worsened following recent events, including Hamas’s 10/7 attack on Israel and rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim extremist group and influential political party, holds considerable sway over the Lebanese government. This influence was evident when authorities endorsed the narrative that the deaths of Sleiman, Hasrouni, and other prominent members of the predominantly Christian Lebanese Forces were due to car thefts, distancing these incidents from any connection to Hezbollah.
The Lebanese Forces (LF), a Christian political party and former militia (distinct from the Lebanese Armed Forces, the national army), have long opposed Hezbollah’s dominance in Lebanon, particularly criticizing its ties to Iran and independent militia operating outside state control. Since the escalation of the Israel-Hamas war on October 7, 2023, tensions between the LF and Hezbollah have grown. The LF blames Hezbollah for destabilizing Lebanon by engaging in cross-border attacks on Israel in support of Hamas, further worsening Lebanon’s fragile political and economic situation. From the LF’s perspective, Hezbollah’s actions serve Iran’s regional interests at the expense of Lebanon’s sovereignty, while Hezbollah argues that its involvement is part of its resistance against Israeli aggression.
Hezbollah’s extensive influence in Lebanon positions it uniquely between a state and non-state actor. The organization maintains a military force surpassing the Lebanese national army in size and operates its own social institutions, welfare programs, banking facilities, and even supermarkets.
Under Lebanon’s power-sharing agreement, the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian. However, Hezbollah’s significant parliamentary presence enables it to impede governmental processes, effectively blocking the election of a president unless the candidate aligns with its preferences. This deadlock has left Lebanon without a president since 2022.
Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai has criticized Hezbollah for actions he perceives as divisive and detrimental to the nation’s unity. Many Christians are rallying around the patriarch, viewing him as a defender of Lebanon’s Christian heritage and identity.
Lebanon’s Christian community maintains that the nation is not at war with Israel and contends that Hezbollah engaged in hostilities without public consent. Following the Lebanese Civil War, Hezbollah was the only militia permitted to retain its weapons, justified as a resistance force against Israeli occupation. In contrast, Christian militias disarmed, leaving them without the military capacity to challenge Hezbollah’s dominance.
In recent years, two Maronite Christian parties—the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and the Marada Movement—have allied with Hezbollah out of perceived political necessity. However, internal dissent is emerging within the FPM, with many members becoming more willing to publicly call Hezbollah an occupying force serving Iranian interests.
The ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has disproportionately affected Lebanon’s Shiite Muslim community, resulting in higher casualties and displacement among its members.
Recent developments in Lebanon have heightened sectarian tensions, particularly between Christian and Shiite Muslim communities. The displacement of Shiite populations due to ongoing conflicts has led to localized clashes with Christian residents. Videos circulating on social media depict these confrontations, exacerbating animosities and raising concerns about the potential for broader conflict. Similarly, videos made the rounds, showing some Lebanese dancing to celebrate the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, further intensifying the situation.
There is growing concern that anti-Hezbollah factions, such as the Kataeb (Christian Phalange) Party and the Lebanese Forces, might take more direct actions against Shiite communities. Additionally, fears persist that Israeli military strikes could mistakenly hit Christian areas, potentially inciting extremist groups to retaliate against Muslim populations.
Some think tanks argue that Israel might benefit from a Lebanese civil war, as it would weaken Hezbollah and, they speculate, Israel may even intentionally stoke conflict to achieve this goal. On October 8th, in a televised message, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the Lebanese people to “stand up and take your country back from [Hezbollah terrorists].” Critics condemned Netanyahu’s remarks, accusing him of deliberately destabilizing Lebanon.
At the same time, it seems reasonable that moderate Muslims, Sunnis, and Christians in Lebanon would want their country to pursue an independent foreign policy rather than act as a proxy for Iran. Not everyone in Lebanon supports Hezbollah; many did not vote for them and do not want their lives dictated by a militant organization. Furthermore, Hezbollah’s ongoing conflict with Israel is pushing Lebanon’s already fragile economy deeper into collapse, worsening human suffering. It’s also notable that Israel would not be bombing Lebanon if Hezbollah had not launched attacks against Israel.
Given these pressures, it’s understandable that those who view Hezbollah as oppressors might be considering ways to reclaim their country’s autonomy, even by force.
In 2020, when the Beirut Port explosion devastated predominantly Christian neighborhoods, Hezbollah obstructed efforts to investigate the incident. After the group declared support for Hamas following the October 7th attacks on Israel, Hezbollah positioned rocket launchers in a mostly Christian village near the Israeli border, placing Christians at risk of retaliatory strikes. Violence against Christians has since intensified, and the Lebanese Forces (LF) have revived their civil war-era rallying cry, “Danger is knocking on the doors.”
This resurgence of Christian solidarity has reinvigorated the Christian Phalange Party—a powerful faction during the Lebanese Civil War—and seen the emergence of new militias like the Soldiers of God, formed to defend Christian neighborhoods and counter Hezbollah’s influence. These developments reflect escalating tensions and the growing determination among Lebanon’s Christian communities to safeguard their security and autonomy.
A complex battle of narratives is unfolding in Lebanon. For some Christians who perceive Israel as an occupying force since the 1982 invasion, Hezbollah is seen as a justified resistance movement, while others see Israel as an aggressor while also opposing Hezbollah. For those who perceive Hezbollah itself as an occupier, civil war might appear as a pathway to ending Hezbollah’s influence. Other factions include Lebanon’s 1.5 million Sunni refugees from Syria, who hold no allegiance to Hezbollah, and many average Lebanese voters who want Iran’s influence out of Lebanon’s affairs.
Pro-Hezbollah voices counter that Israel and Western powers hold too much sway over Lebanon’s political landscape. Meanwhile, many in Lebanon sympathize with the Palestinian people. Although they may not support Hamas, they do not want their own country drawn into a prolonged and devastating conflict, fearing a future of relentless rocket fire and destruction.
