In December of 2023 I posited four possible endings to the war in Ukraine. Today, these could be simplified to three: Ukraine loses, a stalemate, or Russia Loses. Both in my 2023 article and today, quagmire still seems the most likely end in sight. War brings no joy to anyone, with estimates of a million or more killed since the conflict began. One of the principles of Just War Theory is that there must be proportionality to the ends gained in victory, to the damage suffered in the war. And by all standards the suffering has been immense, and not only in terms of lives lost. Sanctions have cost American businesses between $107 and $324 billion in revenue. Many of the Russian markets that were once American dominated have been taken over by Russia or China. Putin is closing social media apps from Western sources. The cultural and economic avenues through which the West may once have positively influenced Russia in a have been swiftly shut.
Russians and Ukrainians have suffered immensely. Estimates vary, but on the Russian side casualties may now exceed one million killed and wounded. The Ukrainian death toll is also not easy to estimate, but it’s probably between 400,000 and 500,000 in total. Meanwhile, overall territorial advances on either side have been halting, conjuring images of a modern Verdun, one of the deadliest and battles of World War I. Wars impose a brutal cost in lives lost, forgone economic opportunities, and cultural exchanges shut. Yet what justice and what resolution can we expect? Let us examine these three possibilities:
Ukrainian Defeat
Certainly, we cannot stand by and watch a Ukrainian defeat. More than an embarrassment to US Foreign policy, this would abandon international responsibility to the Ukrainian people. This leaves either a stalemate or Russian defeat as the only two realistic options, but Christian Realists who espouse Just War Theory must acknowledge that both come with difficulties. Pacifists would, of course, contend that none of this is justified, but Christian Realists must disagree. To have stood back and done nothing ever to support Ukraine would have been to invite Russia to walk over that country, and soon much of Eastern Europe, just as in 1939 under the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact which left them behind the Iron Curtain during the Cold War. Realists do not love war, and Christians must seek to avoid it, but so long as other nations around the world suffer oppression, we will live with some level of obligation under the principle of neighbor-love to do something. If that means aiding them in their fight against tyranny, then so be it.
Russian Defeat
What would it mean for Russia to suffer a defeat? A roll back to the 2022 pre-invasion borders? Or the return of Crimea to Ukraine? The cost of imposing such a defeat on Russia would be significant for Ukraine’s supporters. More powerful weapons, or much superior tactics would need to be employed, as the past few years use of existing weapons and tactics have produced no major breakthrough. To roll Russia back to the 2022 frontier might be possible, but the escalation which it might incur would impose risks and hazards that any realist must seriously think about. Russia is a nuclear power, and in this age no well-armed nuclear power wants a direct confrontation with another nuclear power. This is only sensible. The higher the stakes, the greater the temptation will be to go beyond conventional weapons, which must not happen. Conceivably, a war of attrition might push the Russians back, but what also would be the cost in Ukrainian lives?
Stalemate
A Russian defeat does not seem imminent, and a Ukrainian loss is unjust, but so too is the current stalemate. Putin has gained close to a 19 to 20 percent hold on the territory of Ukraine, and if the war were to end tomorrow, he could declare himself a victor, having made at least made some gains, if not all he had in mind. Zelensky, for his part, were he to accept the status quo or stalemate, would suffer a terrible loss. He is not likely to sell the idea of giving up a fifth of Ukraine as a price of peace to Ukrainians.
One must applaud the spirit of Trump’s recent attempt to bring an end to the war, but also wonder about the terms he had in mind and how he would realize them. Already the memory of the Trump-Putin Alaska summit of August 15 is waning, and we wonder what end is in sight. Putin has absolutely no interest nor immediate incentive to peace, and as long as he is in power and can force the cogs of Russian industry to support it, he will remain at war. Unfortunately, he would still “win” from the current stalemate. Zelensky would not, having no incentive to cooperate. Is escalating the conflict, using more devastating weapons, his only gambit? One shudders to think what the future may bring if that is the only alternative.
What Is a Just Christian Realist Answer?
Christ said, “Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called children of God.” This is as priceless a bit of wisdom now as it was two thousand years ago. Realists know how seldom nations follow it. We need innovative peacemakers today, to bring a resolution to two intransigent sides who have no interest nor incentive to compromise. The Christian response, the realist response, must be to seek that most promising future where Ukrainians and Russians can once again wake up to peace. Hypothetically, one could one ask for a cease fire and a referendum, asking those people actually in Ukraine, where the battle is thickest, what they would like to do. That would seem a just, sensible, and appealing alternative to the constancy of death and war. But even if it were to pass, would the leaders of Russian and Ukraine abide by such a vote? What is democratic, just, and Christian is often lost upon this world, especially in times of war.
The only just resolution that this author can imagine would be to go back to those pre 2022 borders, but as has been said accomplishing that by force imposes great risk of escalation. Yet diplomacy right now seems nigh impossible. Putin, in his mind, also has a dream of the past, of going back to attaining borders that existed before the demise of the Soviet Union, when Ukraine was part of the Russian federation. But as humans and realists we know that going back in time is not possible, only going forward. Capturing the 2022 border does seem to be the most just thing, but incredibly difficult to attain, either by war or diplomacy. In the ensuing months, however this conflict may end, a Christian Realist must not lose sight of a peace with justice.
