“Every war is going to astonish you…” — Dwight Eisenhower

The Iran War fell considerably short of its advocates’ aspirations. There is no “unconditional surrender,” the regime is not overthrown, or arguably even much weakened, and the future of its nuclear and missile programs remains unclear, along with its support for regional proxies. 

It can be hoped that, perhaps, the nuclear program has been impaired, that the regime is maybe slightly wobbled, that in God’s own time fissures in its ranks will emerge, that dissidents will someday be emboldened, that Iran eventually will enter a new day, freed from its theocratic shackles, no longer threatening its neighbors. That day is not here yet.

Was the Iran War worth the costs? Thirteen American service personnel died, amid the expenditure of tens of billions of dollars in munitions. Likely thousands of Iranians died. Many were regime officials but many more were civilians, including 250 children at a school mistakenly hit. 

All wars kill innocents, including children. War is always horrible and always to be avoided unless the alternatives are even more horrific. There will always be wars and rumors of war. But decent and sensible people will always seek alternatives whenever security and justice allow. War should never be treated cavalierly, jokingly or as a game. It is literally life and death. We must always remember: God is watching and judging.

Theocratic tyrants have ruled Iran for 47 years, killing and torturing thousands of their own people, while fomenting war and terror beyond their borders. The tyrants seized power amid widespread, frenzied support. They almost certainly lack majority support now. They retain power thanks to fear and a bedrock of minority support.   

America should never be reconciled to Iran’s theocracy and should rhetorically at least always support its replacement by a more humane successor. There is likely little America can do directly to precipitate that result. Urging Iranians to revolt was cruel, like implied urgings to East Europeans under the Soviet Bloc in the 1950s.  When or how the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guard eventually collapse cannot be known and likely will surprise everybody when it happens, like the Fall of the Berlin Wall, or the sudden implosion of Syria’s Assad regime. Providence moves on its own schedule. 

Wise statecraft waits on Providence and does not try to jumpstart it or bypass it, as the Iran War attempted. Tyrannies are best outwaited, not frontally assaulted. Time is on the side of stable democracies, if we are patient and watchful. There were hotheads in the 1940s and 1950s who urged preemptive war against the Soviet Union.  America’s postwar leadership was more sensible, instead crafting containment, which took 40 years but was one of humanity’s great successes.  The democracies grew and prospered while the Soviet Bloc stagnated and decayed, eventually collapsing. World war, which had killed tens of millions in its previous two iterations, was averted, through perseverance and calm calculation.

Christian Realism counsels patience, perseverance and calculation. It warns against impulsiveness, overconfidence, rashness and hubris. Even when opposing wicked adversaries, our own designs are plagued by human limitations and sin, the chief of which is pride. We are never as strong as we imagine.  Our best designs will never go as planned. Our adversaries will always surprise us and evince hidden strengths. And even our greatest victories are only preambles to future conflicts. 

There are basic lessons for democracies considering war. There should be strong public support, agreement between the executive and legislature, clear and realistic goals, strong alliances with other nations, and carefully considered plans with exit strategies. Our wars should be explicitly explained to the public and the world both morally and strategically. We will not persuade everyone. But neither can we afford to be cavalierly indifferent to opposition.

America has great power to destroy, flatten and kill, whether in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, or Iran, but such destruction does not automatically bring victory or even more limited goals absent strategic and diplomatic savvy.  We celebrate our 250^th birthday this year, having defeated a militarily much more powerful colonial power not so much by battlefield victories but by endurance, patience, and carefully sought allies.

Colonial Britain could win battles with its armies and fleets, but it could not conquer a wilderness stretched across half a continent. Colonial Britain was presumptuous, avoiding accommodation with its colonies, shunning allies, relying on faw force.  Meanwhile, America gained allies from a continent resentful of British power.

America, like all nations, especially democracies, needs allies and needs a certain level of goodwill towards it in the world. Caprice, hubris, braggadocio, and contempt do not serve national interests, nor do they align our republic with the divine interests. As described by Richard Neuhaus and the Institute on Religion and Democracy’s founders in 1981, America remains the “primary bearer of the democratic ideal” today. That vocation includes responsibilities to the world and to posterity. America’s defeats are defeats for democracy and for the aspiration around the world for self-government. Those in Iran, especially, who dreamt of democracy must be today extremely despondent.  

Will America’s folly with Iran be our “Suez” moment, which was a tipping point against British influence in 1956? Or is it a Saigon 1975 moment, representing a major but temporary setback in a wider struggle?  Hopefully and likely the latter, if America recovers a sense of who it is. We are not a transactional great power only seeking power and material gain. We are a great republic that wants a world where democracy, freedom and human dignity can prosper. Our republic and its global influence must be stewarded responsibly, not misspent capriciously.

Even as America, we hope briefly, falters to the benefit of Iranian despots, we can rejoice at the survival and triumphs of free people in Ukraine, who continue to outperform their Iranian aligned invaders and ignite the Moscow sky with their drones.   

Neutralizing Iran’s dictatorship was in theory a noble cause, but the means and strategy were poorly considered, to the point of sinful recklessness. As Reinhold Neibuhr wrote, “All human sin seems so much worse in its consequences than in its intentions.” Hopefully our nation learns from this imprudence, and, with calm reflection, outwits and ultimately defeats Iran’s tyrants, whose evasion of justice cannot endure forever.