Should the U.S. directly assist Israel’s destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program?

The short answer is, to my mind, as a Christian realist, yes, but not with unqualified enthusiasm. Christian Realism never embraces war enthusiastically, only from grim necessity, hopefully without illusions, knowing that even success brings more problems, and likely tragedies.

Nuclear weapons controlled by a not always rational theocracy whose foundational purpose is hatred of America, and Israel, is unacceptably dangerous.

True, North Korea, whose regime hates America and often appears deranged, has nuclear weapons. And perhaps the U.S. should have acted against it before it had them. Complications with China were part of the equation. It is assumed that America can deter North Korea with our far greater fire power. North Korean communists as atheists presumably don’t want martyrdoms. Neither did Maoist China back in the day, nor did the Soviet Union. (In 1962 Fidel Castro, although atheist, was willing to precipitate nuclear war. Fanaticism can trump self-interest.)   

Iran’s theocracy is unique for having repeatedly across decades openly aspired to Israel’s destruction. Far away, large America can possibly risk and deter Iranian nuclear threats. Nearby and geographically tiny Israel has little room for error. America cannot abide the destruction of an ally, much less another holocaust against the Jews, after our refrain of “never again.” Iran also looms over the Middle East and its oil. A nuclear Iran would presumably mean a nuclear Saudi Arabia, and maybe Egypt, among possibly others.

The insanity in Iran began with its Islamic revolution in 1979, which not only overthrew the Shah but has murdered many thousands at home, armed terrorism abroad, and styled itself the third great revolution, after the French and Bolshevik. Fortunately, its brand of Islamism, limited to Shiites, has never spread very far. But its petrodollars have financed endless, lethal mischief. The fires of Iran’s revolution have been long dimming. Theocracy typically discredits religion, especially when as tyrannical as Iran’s, and some polls indicate a minority of Iranians now identify as Muslim. Perhaps only one third of Iranians are now seriously religious, and presumably few beyond them support the now stale 46-year-old revolutionary regime, whose 86-year-old supreme leader currently hides in a shelter. Despite his heated rhetoric, and advanced age, he is apparently shy about martyrdom.

That supreme leader has for years threatened Israel with death. A former Iranian president often spoke of Israel’s annihilation as it relates eschatologically to the return of Shiite Islam’s messiah. That president seemed to believe it as a matter of faith. At this point, most of Iran’s theocrats and their spear carriers are likely operating on more earthly ideology and self-interest, which for them means hating Israel.

Israel launched its current campaign again Iran to forestall an imminent nuclear weapon. Reputedly Israel cannot reach the deepest nuclear facilities. Or can it? Israel is a small but brave and brilliant nation that is endlessly creative. U.S. intervention is necessary to prevent Iran’s nukes if Israel cannot complete what it has begun. It’s hard to conceive there will ever be more favorable circumstances for Israel and the U.S. to destroy those facilities. Iran’s proxies are largely neutralized. Russia is busy in Ukraine. China almost certainly would not intervene. Iran is bereft of meaningful allies right now.

So, if truly necessary, let’s act thoroughly. But let’s not pretend that the matter is easily concluded. Even if the nuclear facilities are destroyed, there will be repercussions. How will the Iranian regime respond? It’s a relatively wealthy nation of over 90 million people whose rulers are ruthless and sometimes creative. Will Iran foment direct terror against the U.S.? The 1986 U.S. airstrikes on Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya in response to his terrorism did not discourage him. In 1988 his agents blew Pan Am 103 out of the sky over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing 259 people, including 190 Americans. Terror on that scale is not difficult for governments to orchestrate. Gaddafi stayed in power for another 23 years, committing countless more crimes. If Iran launched an ongoing terror campaign against the U.S., air strikes likely would not suffice. A ground campaign to overthrow the regime likely would be needed. How to occupy a nation of that size, several times larger than Iraq?

We can all hope and pray that the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities among other targets will encourage the theocracy’s overthrow. But will it? Saddam survived a dozen years after his calamitous Persian Gulf War defeat, and even then, had to be defeated again by Western forces, his own people unable to challenge his police state. Gaddafi, although widely hated, survived 40 years. The Assads, through terror, survived over 50 years.

And if Iran’s mullahs fall, what will replace them? A military dictatorship? A restored monarchy? A democratic republic? Or chaos and civil war? The religious minority of many millions who still back the mullahs, and who now have all the guns, will not disappear. Will it accept rule by others?

It’s hard to believe that a successor regime or nearly any situation could be any worse. But there are those who today claim that Saddam, Gaddafi, and the Assads were preferable to what followed. I disagree. But we should remember that rarely are vicious regimes easily replaced without vast disorder. Those tyrannies had made it their focus to destroy every parcel of civil society that enables a decent society. Rebuilding a nation from near scratch is always very hard. So is every kind of war, even if victorious.

Dwight Eisenhower said, “every war is going to astonish you in the way it occurred, and in the way it is carried out.” Let’s be ready for astonishment.

And, if absolutely necessary, let’s help Israel do this work. But there almost certainly will be nasty surprises ahead, even in the very best-case scenario. At the heart of Christian Realism is the constant expectation of unintended consequences, even with wise actions, and the need for humility. Our virtue and our knowledge are always finite. Only God knows the future. May He see us all through to a better future, with Iran governed by rulers who seek to help their own people rather than destroy other peoples.

And let’s remember that God mercifully withholds from us knowledge of the future, as such knowledge might be unbearable, and deter us from what we must do.